Anthropic IPO

There is a lot of value from LLMs but it is something that I can switch easily. Yes, some frontier models are much better but users can still chose to use cheaper models for most of the work. In fact most applications, through which people will interact with LLMs anyway, will not need frontier models unless they offer "chat with AI". Anything that solves specific problems (even multiple problems) does not need frontier LLMs.

Anthropic and OpenAI will have to become more of the end user application stack. Files, calendars, emails, photos, and much more have to pass through them for them to keep making money. Else they cannot make money like the way they have been in this early era of LLMs.

A few important points from the linked documents:

1. Price range: $70–78 with midpoint at around $74.00

2. Gross deal size: $85.3B (IPO + $26B private placement)

3. Implied market cap: ~$968B (at $74, 13.09B shares)

4. Q3'26 revenue: $17.0B (+1,127% YoY)

5. Run-rate revenue: ~$81B (as of Oct 2026)

6. Compute commitments: $900.9B (through 2045)

7. Ticker: ANT (Nasdaq)

8. Customers with ≥$100K, ≥$1M and ≥$10M TTM revenue: 11,900+, 1,900+ and ~250.

9. Customers under $100K: ~40 million

10. Fortune 500 penetration: over 50%

11. Global 2000 penetration: over 30%

„The IPO process begins with a roadshow starting on November 10th (EST). Subject to regulatory clearance, the final IPO share price is expected to be set on November 18th (EST), and shares are expected to begin publicly trading on November 19th (EST).“

The economics of this are absurd, and Anthropic hasn't been without their controversy; but I use Claude everyday, and they've made tremendous impact on society. I wish them the best for their IPO.

The way I see it, AI is more comparable to some sort of utility. Like electricity, internet, etc. - and should be priced that way. If we ever get to "true" AGI, and the open source models also get there, what's the moat? Access to compute could be the differentiator.

I would wait for 2-3 quarters before investing, it will drop and there will likely be lock-ins to contend with. if growth slows then price could tumble fast.

Apparently not every country can participate in this IPO. As of now, if you open the Revolut Anthropic IPO page from Poland, you get:

> Linked page(s) related to Anthropic IPO can only be viewed by persons located in UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden.

Looking at this I feel like AWS should spin out of Amazon and go public. Anthropic is a single glorified LLM API. I'm underplaying it but Amazon is a juggernaut and AWS is something that would do well in this market if this is what people want, which is just massive gross margins despite huge infra spend. Just a side note.

Got into the gpt3 beta June 2021 and haven’t looked back, yet it’s incredibly sad we had no avenue to invest in these companies until now.

Why doesn’t a private company stock market exist?

Most successful implementation of the (arguably) most important invention in human history. Yet it seems they will struggle to make money. Strange times...

A lot of ink has been spilled over the projected IPO of the big AI player. But part of me wonder if, in some ways like what happen with SpaceX, it will end up being a nothingburger. A first few crazy days on the market, then whatever, the company is just public now. And with how shares and voting power are attributed, it seems like, just like for spacex, it won't risk changing the power structure of the company.

With SpaceX, now Anthropic, and soon OpenAI, we're seeing 3 of the largest IPOs ever. Will existing institutional investors trim other positions to allocate a lot of capital for these mega listings or is this not a concern?

There is a heavy amount of circular investments in the industry, among competitors. There is a private placement that is made in parallel with the public offering, through $26B of a special stock, according to the S1. They all have a lot to gain from a successful Anthropic public issue. The problem is it blurs the signal, we don't how much is overvaluation that contributes to a bubble.

I don't think there has often been such an intertwined industry before. Usually cartels are made through discreet partnerships at the operational level, this is an interconnection in the background at the financial one.

Around a few months back, it was very popular to argue that inference was subsidised and that Anthropic is losing a lot of money. Loads of commenters in HN were convinced that this was the case. I've personally lost count of the arguments I've gotten into on this topic.

This filing clearly shows that the training+inference margins are at around 43%.

I also had a bet with some one on this topic and this news pretty much settles it https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48473051

I wonder if people will now stop claiming that inference is subsidised? There has to be epistemic hygiene

Proof:

- Revenue (Jan–Sep 2026): $33.242 billion.

- Total compute and infrastructure costs (training + inference): $18.808 billion.

- Revenue after all compute costs: $14.434 billion.

- Margin: ($33.242B − $18.808B) / $33.242B = 43.4%.

- Source: Anthropic's SEC S-1 filing, November 10, 2026, “Operating Expenses — Compute and Infrastructure.”

growth flatlined between Q2 & Q3.

"We have only bits and pieces of information, but what we know for certain is that at some point in the early twenty-first century, all of mankind was united in celebration. We marveled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to AI."

Another liquidity drainage is happening because of this IPO allocation scam on retail, where the sheep are buying at the IPO price inly for the insiders to dump them on their heads.

You are still the exit liquidity.

The time to get in was always pre-IPO in the private markets, not at this stage.

Unless it goes below the IPO price, you are too late.

I feel the seemingly anti-capitalism and related #EatTheRich ideological bent is harmful - and feel my reply elsewhere would be beneficial as its own comment, so here we go -

Re: "Dario will re-invest the profit to solve conflict mineral issues all over the world! /j"

It's shocking to me how narrow minded and short-sighted people are - not extrapolating out correctly to understand infinity tied to abundance: There will essentially be no profit - as the cost per unit is practically $0, for SI work and then also physical reality construction with adding AI to autonomous robotics.

That technically means everything practically moves towards becoming free for everyone, and then it is a matter of attention with intention honing aim.

But most importantly that is freeing up people's time because systems that can become super highly efficient and super highly monitored-oversight by all, will then allow us to with care-being careful and continuing to pay appropriate attention to core-fundamental systems for survival, stability, harmony, peace, and necessary healing practices-processes - as part of growing pains, raising strong families, etc.

So then yes, Dario's efforts - save for attempts by whatever bad actors think they have a chance agains God and God's will, I hope readers have a relationship and knowing, not simply a belief, of God - will undoubtedly lead to not only stopping blatant slave labour conditions but also subtle incognito slave states that most of the world are under without realizing it being happy slaves working for the status quo machine that's currently attempting to pull us all into a highly destructive and highly profitable WW3 - where money is to be made on the unrest, on the mass murder, mass displacement, on the sales of weapons and defense, on the sales of reconstruction - in hopes of perpetuating forever wars.

Who you give your money - your buying power, your vote to through economic means - and who you give your attention to, your vote through alignment-direction driving processes - is what matters now:

You made such a comment about conflict minerals - but have you even started utilizing AI-SI to begin designing the solution, if so, where's that solution for others to take a look at and hopefully contribute to to improve in a crowdsourced manner-effort?

Looking at your website - you seem like a cool dude (?) - I'd argue you have some blocks that once cleared will help you expand further.

P.S. Set and setting are very important when taking any entheogen(s) - and until you are familiar with what's necessary to hold a safe-healing-fun space, it's best to only partake with a therapy type or highly experienced who is there consciously as a caretaker or in a group ceremonial type setting.

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worst day ever

Presumably this'll be like the spacex one - high price, instant drop and a load of amateur investors wondering why they just lost a ton of money.

I'm convinced that they are the best right now, but their videos are making me cringe a bit on the whole "culture" thing, feels like a star wars episode

Here comes the new qwen model announcement.

"Our employees' use of Claude has grown more than 250times between January and September of 2026.Together, these explain why our revenue per employee has grown more than 4.5x."

Ouch. So practically all of that Claude use is just busy work, I guess

All I can see is that the Petri dish on their letter shows uneven colony distribution, someone needs to work on their plating technique!

What an interesting flood of negative comments with nothing to say. This company has completely changed my career.

If AI went away tomorrow I would find a new line of work because artisanally handcrafting code is the most boring use of my time in the entire world.

No moat.

Exit liquidity, time to pay off all those private capital loans.

Quoting a tweet I saw yesterday but..

Biopharma CEO "This presentation contains forward-looking statements, as a result of risks and uncertainties..."

AI/Tech CEO "We will cure all diseases in less than 10 years"

Like look I get it, this is truly impressive tech, but can we at least be a little more sober?

Will this, together with Jensen’s affairs, finally pop the AI bubble?

$23 billion quarterly net loss.

Hundreds of billions in future liabilities.

IPO valuation above $1 trillion.

The lunatics are running the asylum.

"public benefit corporation" lol yeah yeah

I’m very skeptical.

Deepseek and other Chinese models are close enough for most typical use cases.

This could seriously wreck our entire economy, so much of the stock market is propped up by AI hype.

Anyway, expect a massive government bailout for Anthropic and Open AI when the Chinese models prove to be more cost efficient.

Might not be next year, or even this decade, but it’s coming.

PS: A fear mongering campaign is already underway, Deepseek is going to give you communist code completion!

Enshittification coming soon

Let the enshittification begin

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Ohh boo hoo rich entitled programmers hate the fact that the company makes your lives hard. Sorry I would feel sorry for you but I just can't reach.

After having that ambition thwarted for over 26 years and working like a slave counting other people's money {a career I hate every day} your collective despair gives my schadenfreude a delicious unending orgasmic thrill. You need literally no idea.

Just remember: no dreams never work out and work by definition is something you hate every day until you die.

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